One-in-Ten Chance

India have gone 2-0 up after the Second Test in Delhi, preserving their perfect record at the ground since 1959.

Poor batting by Australia? Certainly. Can touring teams like Australia’s learn to bat on wickets that are prepared to be low, slow and turning? Evidence would suggest they just don’t know how.

Based on the data since 2010, India have a 75-80% chance of winning a Test played at home. A visiting team has perhaps a 1-in-10 chance.

Is this because the Indian authorities have issued strict instructions to grounds staff to prepare wickets that will give India’s spinners an overwhelming advantage? In other words, are the wickets doctored more now than they used to be?

Or is it something else entirely?

Is it more a case of India having not one but two once-in-a-generation spinners in Ashwin and Jadeja? Will we look back after they retire and regard the past decade as a golden age for Indian spinners in the same way as we think of the 1980s as a golden age for West Indian fast bowlers?

* up to and including the Second Test in Delhi, Feb 2023

I wish I knew.

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