How will Australia’s batting order change for the Second Test in Melbourne?

When David Warner comes back into the team for the Second Test against India in Melbourne, it seems likely Joe Burns will be retained and Will Pucovski will be made to wait his turn. I’m not convinced Burns’ half-century in the second innings of the First Test answers all the questions over his form, but for a coach and selectors searching for any reason to keep him and preserve the left-and-right-hand combination at the top of the order, it will probably suffice.

Which leaves us with Matthew Wade, Cameron Green and Travis Head competing for two places in the middle order.

The chat in the media seems to suggest either Wade or Green will make way, but I’m going to assume that Cameron Green’s great potential means the selectors will retain him and give him some more opportunities.

For my money, the selectors need to consider omitting Travis Head in favour of Wade.

For over two years, Head has failed to become the middle-order bulwark the selectors have sought. Although his batting average after 18 Tests is a decent 40.66, that average is declining. In his first 8 Tests, Head made 663 runs at 51.00. In his most recent 10 Tests, he has made 425 runs at 30.25. That’s quite a deterioration. He made 191 runs at 27.29 across the first four Tests in the most recent Ashes series before being dropped for the Fifth Test. He returned for the series against Pakistan and New Zealand (5 Tests in all) but has made only one significant score: 114 against NZ at the MCG in December 2019 (when Smith also made 85, Paine 79 not out and Labuschagne 63 in a team total of 467).

Only once has Head stood up to save the team from oblivion when it was under pressure, when he made 72 out of a team total of 235 in the Adelaide Test against India in December 2018 (India won that game). A batsman in Head’s position (i.e. No. 5) needs to do what his skipper, Tim Paine, just did in the First Test in Adelaide, when Paine’s 73 not out in a team score of 191 saved the game for Australia and won him the Player of the Match award. Head’s first innings dismissal to Ravi Ashwin, bunting the ball straight back to the bowler, was a terribly tame one.

Head had a decent Shield season in 2019-20, scoring 450 runs at 40.91 in six matches, and started the 2020-21 season well with 455 runs at 65.00 in four games, including scores of 171 not out and 151. This is undoubtedly why he remained in the Test team, but the cricket graveyards are littered with players who failed to step up from Shield to Test level and perform well against the world’s best teams (currently England and India). We’re still waiting for Head to prove he is up to the job.

Matthew Wade, on the other hand, appears to be enjoying a late career revival. Unlike Head, whose recent 10-Test average is well below his career average, Wade’s average is actually RISING. In his last 11 Tests, Wade has averaged 35.00 vs his career average of 30.85. In the recent Ashes series, he made two centuries (albeit accompanied by scores of 1, 1 and 0), ending with 337 runs at 33.70. In 7 innings against Pakistan and New Zealand in 2019-20, he averaged 43.40. He has only played two Shield games so far this season, but has 209 runs in 4 innings at 69.67, with two half-centuries. He also made scores of 58 and 80 in two of the three recent T20 matches against India, and although the difference in format may make such scores irrelevant when considering his Test potential, it could be evidence of a confidence that Head just doesn’t seem to exhibit.

Wade will turn 33 on Boxing Day, and Head will turn 27 three days later. Perhaps it is the knowledge that Wade doesn’t have too many years left that is allowing him to play with more confidence and fewer inhibitions than Head.

Head has been given plenty of chances. There is more than enough justification for omitting him in favour of Wade.